GBPAUD

GBPAUD Minor Forex Pair

Today, the GBPAUD minor Forex pair is currently at a 4-hour supply zone after President Trump announced more tariffs, causing significant breakouts across all Forex pairs. The price is now above last week's high and retesting it (see below).

I am not convinced

The current analysis indicates that this currency pair is likely to maintain its upward trend and reach the major high. However, we are currently experiencing a strong/aggressive correction, and the recent rejection from the supply zone suggests that the price may either stall or break the existing upward trendline.

To further evaluate the market, it would be beneficial to observe if the pair breaks the current upward trendline and the most recent higher low structure, accompanied by strong downward momentum. If such conditions are met, this could present an opportunity to consider a short trade back to the swing low.

I will provide an update as soon as we get more price action around the upward trendline. Thank you for your attention.

Update: Feb 4

In my previous analysis, I expressed skepticism about the persistence of the uptrend, and this has been validated as the price has stalled, failing to surpass the high of the previous day. Currently, the price is retesting the upward trendline while facing significant bearish pressure. 

Here's a summary of my outlook for the GBPAUD pair in the upcoming day.

The EURAUD currency pair is also experiencing bearish pressure today, a trend that shows a correlation with the GBPAUD pair. I will be providing a detailed analysis of the EURAUD pair later today.

Update: Feb 5

I observed a significant development in my analysis today with the trendline showing a break, which reinforced my previous skepticism about the continuation of the uptrend. The breakout from the trendline was relatively modest, and importantly, the higher low has yet to be breached. This suggests that caution is warranted as we assess the potential for further upward movement.

I will provide an update as soon as we observe more price action later in the day. Thank you for your attention.

Update: Feb 5

The GBPAUD pair has changed direction. The price has broken out of the upward trend mentioned yesterday. However, the breakout was weak, so I’m not looking to enter a short trade just yet. I have included a screenshot below and would like to see a strong momentum breakout from the current correction.

This thread is now complete, and I will start a new one based on fresh momentum and a new bias for this pair when those signs emerge.